Marvel Studios and Disney’s “The Marvels” is now tracking for a $75-80 million opening weekend on November 10th, a start around 50% below the $153 million opening for the first “Captain Marvel”.
The projection now sits between long-lead tracking figures of $90 million by analytics firm Quorum, and $50-75 million by Box-Office Pro the other week.
The numbers, considered low for a Marvel tentpole film, are being held down for several reasons according to Deadline. Partly the lack of talent being able to promote the film, partly a late start to promotional efforts, and interest seems low – especially in the under 35s where it’s pulling in “Ant-Man”-style numbers.
Their sources also suggest audiences aren’t really connecting with the characters, whilst the film is pacing behind other Marvel efforts of late including “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3,” “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” and “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness” in overall interest.
It comes at an interesting time for the box-office in the weeks ahead. Scorsese’s “Killers of the Flower Moon” opens today and is tracking for a modest $22 million start which would put it in second place behind the second weekend of “Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour” which is pacing for a $32 million haul (a standard ‘concert film’ steep drop of 66%).
Next week’s “Five Nights at Freddy’s” is tracking for a stellar haul of around $40 million on its box office debut – making it the second best Fall debut behind only the Swift concert film.