Bitcoin enthusiasts eagerly await the next Bitcoin halving, scheduled for April 2024, as it is often seen as a significant catalyst for the cryptocurrency. However, analyst Rekt Capital has raised intriguing interest in Bitcoin’s historical patterns.
Over the past few years, Bitcoin has taken anywhere from 518 to 546 days to peak after a halving event. Bitcoin could peak in either mid-September or mid-October 2025 if history repeats itself. Notably, October has historically been a strong month for Bitcoin.
He wrote on X, “Over the past several years, it has taken Bitcoin 518-546 days to top out after its Halving. If history repeats, Bitcoin could top in either mid-September 2025 or mid-October 2025.”
Rekt Capital draws attention to the similarities between the current year, 2023, and 2019 in terms of Bitcoin’s performance. In October 2019, Bitcoin saw a modest 10% rally. If Bitcoin replicates this performance in October 2023, its price could revisit the $29,200 mark.
In this scenario, Bitcoin might form an extended upward wick beyond the lower high resistance level before potentially retracing, confirming the current move as a relief rally. Rekt Capital notes that Bitcoin is 210 days away from its halving event. In the 2019 cycle, Bitcoin formed a lower high (purple) at this point, followed by a 147-day period in which it crashed by 62% to reach a macro higher low.
If a similar pattern unfolds in this cycle, Bitcoin could form another lower high soon, leading to a 27% price drop into its macro higher low (blue circle) by mid-February 2024. This would potentially place Bitcoin’s price at around $20,300.